anticipation of a contest Cristina vs. Macri in Argentina?

On October 2, the first electoral round will be held in Brazil. The duel between Lula and Bolsonaro is spicy and in the polls the leader of the PT is first since the beginning of the campaignthough The president has been putting all the meat on the grill on the court: tax cuts, little money in the pockets and provocative statements.

All this It has allowed him to reduce the differences, but still running from behind. The last photograph of the numbers that both contenders have, provided by FSB investigation, a leading opinion consultant, indicates a difference of eight and nine points between one and the other (The point of difference is between the spontaneous scenario that assigns 42% to Lula and 34% to Bolsonaro and the guided scenario that modifies the figures to 44% and 35%, respectively).

If we stick to this information there would be a second round -it would be held on October 30- and there Luiz Inácio da Silva would obtain a political and personal revenge (from 52% to 39%, always according to the cited source). Of course, we will have to wait for the results because, as the Argentine philosopher Tusam said: “It can fail.”

What do the polls say about the elections in Brazil?

Some talk about shameful vote in favor of the current president to add tension to elections that are already very stressed. The Bolsonarista pro-government front, called “For the good of Brazil” has more followers among the men than women, collects the strength of its adhesions between the age group of 40 to 50 years, grows with the highest levels of education and consolidates among the evangelists.

As far as the Lulista “Front of Hope” is concerned, its strengths are registered in the female patternyoung people between 16 and 24 years old, those who have primary education and those who define themselves as having no religion (although Catholics also overwhelmingly back the two-time Brazilian president).

Political differences, as in all geographies and times, are also sustained in social, cultural issues and belief systems. Personal biographies play an important role, but they are very far from explaining the whole of an electoral process. People who represent much more than individual attributes are always voted for.

The result of the elections in Brazil will be a key factor for Argentine politics.

The result of the elections in Brazil will be a key factor for Argentine politics.

The relevance of the elections in Brazil also extends beyond its borders. We are analyzing the most important country in the region, by specific weight and influences. It is, without exaggeration, the “Germany of South America”. And for the Argentines of our main partner. The latter exceeds the volume of the bilateral trade balance. The neighboring giant is the natural leader of the sub-continent. From how it exercises its strategic role -or from its temporary abdication to do so- results emerge that have a relevant impact on us.

Elections in Brazil: key factor for Argentina

It’s hard to understand that Jair Bolsonaro and Alberto Fernandez have not physically met in this years. This unusual fact cannot be corrected by the outstanding action of Ambassador Daniel Scioli, a positive influence when it comes to relaxing tensions and reaching essential agreements that presidential diplomacy cannot replace.

without a doubt what happens at the polls there will have interpretations here. We can risk stating that in the Front of All the return of Lula would generate a euphoria to the Planalto Palace. There would be no fissures because all the sectors that make up the administration, distanced by multiple internal ones, are united on this issue.

The Argentine president could argue without exaggeration that since his days as a candidate he had gestures of support for the PT leader. No one would be in a position to argue with him. And the Kirchnerists would point out with sincere enthusiasm the parallel between the return of the former trade unionist to power -through lawfare- and the recent personal vice-presidential history.

On the other hand, it would be expected that, if there were a crash and Jair Bolsonaro ended up winning re-election, it would be the supporters of Together for Change and the libertarians who encourage happy anticipatory prophecies. The readings of one and the other would be legitimate, but also partial.

Lula’s triumph, a triumph for the Argentine ruling party

A Lula victory could alternatively be interpreted as the moderate return of a “herbivorous lion” who chose a deputy centrist and leading figures from the economic establishment as consulting men. And, additionally, it would confirm the golden rule of this era of regional politics: the ruling parties lose. What is observed with ideological glasses is happy, seen as officialism, bitter.

Lula has a certain advantage ahead of the elections on October 2, although a ballot is not ruled out.

Lula has a certain advantage ahead of the elections on October 2, although a ballot is not ruled out.

Lula has a certain advantage ahead of the elections on October 2, although a ballot is not ruled out.

And it would be impossible for the Argentine opposition to ignore the fact that in recent months the “rock star” president of the orthodox right did not hesitate to increase spending and lower taxes electorally launching actions of a populist short-termism. Oblivious to similarities and differences, many grow the fantasy of having 2023 a superfinal equivalent to the Brazilian between the two main animators of vernacular politics: CFK and Mauricio Macri.

For Cristina, after the failed experience of Alberto Fernández, it would be risky to insist on the way of the vicar candidate. And in the case of the former president, all his movements are given in “campaign mode”. Since the publication in 2021 of his suggestive book “Primer tiempo” he has not stopped in his desire to consolidate his centrality on the opposition map.

The promise of a new publication next October, the multiple tours of municipalities in different parts of the country and the granting of interviews to share his vision of the Argentina to come show a vocation that exceeds that of a spectator or simple adviser. Will we have to prepare for a final duel Or perhaps the mere threat of that possibility will illuminate new spaces and candidates? That is the question.

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