RIO DE JANEIRO – The advantage of former Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the voting intention polls for the presidential elections on October 2 over the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, increased two points in the last week, and with it the possibility of to be elected in the first round.
According to the survey released this Thursday by the Datafolha firm, with ten days to go before the most polarized elections in Brazil’s history, the progressive leader has 47% favoritism, compared to 33% for the far-right leader, with which the former president increased his advantage over the current head of state from 12 to 14 percentage points.
The poll, the largest done so far by the country’s main polling firm (listed to 6,754 voters in 343 cities between Tuesday and Thursday), showed that Lula’s vote intention grew two percentage points compared to the 45% he had in last week’s poll, while that of Bolsonaro, who is running for re-election, remained stable at 33%.
According to Datafolha, whose poll has a margin of error of two points, the result left the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) with the possibility of being elected without the need for a second round, scheduled for October 30 in the event that neither candidate obtains more than half of the valid votes.
This is due to the fact that, taking into account the valid votes, that is, discounting the blank and null ones, the intention to vote in Lula rose from 48% last week to 50% in the survey concluded this Thursday, while that of Bolsonaro remained at 35%.
The strategy of the former president (2003-2010) in the last days of the campaign has been to seek the “useful vote” of the voters who are still betting on third candidates to try to guarantee their election in the first round.
Lula’s campaign has been appealing to the support of Labor voters Ciro Gomes, the third most voted candidate in the 2018 presidential elections and whose intention to vote fell from 8% last week to the current 7%, and those of Senator Simone Tebet, candidate for the main center parties in the country and whose favoritism remained stable at 5%.
Only one other candidate, out of the eleven contesting the presidential elections, manages to appear in the polls. This is Senator Soraya Thronicke, a candidate for the right-wing Unión Brasil, whose vote intention fell from 2% to 1%.
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For the demographic data analyst Mauro Paulino, the increase in Lula’s intention to vote and the drop in that of Ciro Gomes and Thronicke makes it clear that the former union leader’s strategy of seeking the “useful vote” to define the lawsuit in the first round has been successful.
“The result shows that there are already voters opting for the useful vote, but what is going to define whether Lula is elected in the first round or not is going to be the level of abstention. If the voters mobilize so that the lawsuit is decided on On October 2, Lula will be able to obtain more than half of the valid votes, but a high level of abstention could harm him,” said the analyst.
Datafolha also simulated a second round and confirmed Lula’s favoritism. According to this week’s poll, if a ballot is necessary, the progressive leader would be elected with 54% of the vote compared to 38% for the far-right.
That possibility also reflects the rates of rejection of the candidates since, according to this week’s poll, 52% of Brazilian voters say they would not vote for Bolsonaro in any way and 39% say the same about Lula.