Brazil enters the final stretch of what has undoubtedly been a long and tense electoral campaign. In ten days the presidential elections will take place in the largest country in Latin America and the two most respected pollsters in the country agree give a solid advantage to the former left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silvaabove the current president, the conservative Jair Bolsonaro.
With advantages of 15 or 12 points over BolsonaroAccording to the pollster, Brazilians are beginning to prepare for the triumph of the septuagenarian former head of state (2003-2010) and founder of the Workers’ Party (PT), who was harassed by corruption scandals and which phoenix has risen in this 2022 to hinder the re-election of the current president.
For two European diplomats consulted by DIARIO DE CUBA, the concern surrounding October 2, when 147 million Brazilians eligible for the electoral roll turn out to vote, it is not the victory of Lula de Silva that both take for grantedbut the reaction that Bolsonaro will have, who during the campaign has hinted that he will not admit defeat, arguing that the electoral system is not reliable and involving the military in the political diatribe.
“I have been analyzing this country for 22 years and I have never seen it so besieged by the danger of an attempted civil war, given the depth of hatred that Bolsonaro has managed to inject into all parts of society,” says Spanish journalist Juan Arias, a veteran connoisseur of the Brazilian political dynamics.
The sources consulted by DIARIO DE CUBA confirmed that Lula da Silva’s team has advanced contacts with the US and several key countries of the European Union, between these Germany and France, so that there is rapid international recognition of what is expected to be their victory. According to the PT command, if the international community delays his pronouncement, Bolsonaro could act to disregard the results and call for street demonstrations by his followers.
According to the latest data released by the renowned Datafolha, Lula da Silva has a comfortable lead. He receives 45% of voting intentions for October 2 against the 33% who would vote for Bolsonaro. It is a difference of 12 points.
“The lying Datafolha is not here. Here is our Datapueblo,” he said. an exalted Bolsonaro before his followers, putting in doubt the victory that practically all the pollsters give to the former president. The president also has fueled fear of communism.
For its part, the most recent study by Ipec presents a difference of 15 points in favor of the founder of the PT: 46% versus 31%. Ipec was founded by the executives and researchers of the former Ibope Inteligência, one of the most traditional public opinion research centers in Brazil, but which closed its doors in 2021. For this reason, credibility is given to this research center .
In the Datafolha study, which was published by the well-known newspapers Or Balloon Y Folha de Sao Pauloit is evident that Bolsonaro has a very consolidated and majority rejection, which in the eyes of analysts makes his re-election unfeasible.
53% of the voters consulted He said he completely rejected Bolsonarowhile the aversion towards Lula da Silva adds up to 38%.
If the results of the Datafolha and Ipec polls are confirmed, this October 2, Lula da Silva would win but would not avoid the ballot, set for October 30. For a candidate to win the elections in the first round, he needs to obtain 50% plus one of the valid votes cast. The PT command has the goal of achieving victory in the first round.
Brazilian media reported that the elbow-to-elbow fight between the two candidates moved to the religious arena. Both Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva They have launched messages to evangelical voters, who represent 25% of the electoral roll.
Yes Bolsonaro loses reelectionwould be the first head of state in power who does not manage to be re-elected, since this figure was established in 1994.
Carolina Botelho, a political scientist and researcher at the Electoral Studies Laboratory of the State University of Rio de Janeiro, commented that “re-election normally occurs because the president has the government machine at his disposal and it is a powerful electoral weapon.”
However, this academic emphasizes that Bolsonaro had such a bad performance, especially in the framework of the Covid-19 pandemic, “that he managed to nullify that powerful weapon.”