The US risk rating agency Fitch Ratings announced this Friday that it “increases the outlook for lower inflation in basic goods (excluding energy)”.
in his last Economy Dashboardthe agency explained that this is because “disruptions in the global supply chain are beginning to relax as shipping rates decrease, the time it takes to deliver products is reduced rapidly, port congestion is relieved and the backlog of orders is eliminated.”
The agency added that the “slowdown in consumer demand for durable goods is helping to alleviate bottlenecks in the supply chain, as the purchasing power of households is affected by increases in interest rates. highest interest and inflation.
In this sense, the agency pointed out that “surveys show that the proportion of US consumers who plan to buy expensive items is also falling, which points to further declines in the annual growth rate of spending on durable goods.”
The agency noted that “there are also signs that the shortage of semiconductors is starting to ease as the time needed to deliver them appears to have peaked” and that “Korean semiconductor inventories rose at their fastest pace since 2016, while that shipment growth has slowed rapidly.”
“The rise in the inventory-to-sales ratio today could be consistent with falling goods price inflation in some sectors, in the same way that commodity inflation rose sharply last year when sales exceeded inventories,” Fitch Ratings said.
However, the agency warned that “risks to the supply chain remain given China’s zero Covid-19 policy, which could result in further disruptions to China’s export capacity, while gas rationing in Europe could affect industrial supply chains.”
By contrast, the agency called recent improvements in pressures on the global supply chain “encouraging.”